Finishing school well has lifelong benefits for students and communities – higher incomes, lower unemployment, and increased wellbeing. Yet, despite decades of research and significant investment, these efforts have not translated into better educational outcomes, particularly for students from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Our research is anchored in the Bayesian paradigm, an advanced statistical framework that enables the synthesis of various types of information. The Thrive Cycle focuses on three interrelated phases: understanding what matters, discovering what works, and accelerating what changes to drive real improvement in educational outcomes.
Thrive works directly with young people, communities, schools, and government to understand what finishing school well means to them and what truly matters. Through focus groups, consultations, and community engagement, we explore current beliefs, identify key influencing factors such as belonging, academic support, and mental health, and translate this into measurable insights using data and probability models. These insights guide the collection of the most relevant information for meaningful analysis.
We connect data with insights from communities to assign probabilities to different theories of change, represented as causal graphical models. By examining multiple models, Thrive tests key variables to uncover their true impact on students' ability to complete school successfully and identify the causal pathways that matter most. Working closely with experts in social science and education, we explore these pathways at both the population and individual levels, and build an evidence base to guide future decisions.
After potential initiatives have been identified, Thrive focuses on implementing these strategies and co-designing initiatives across individual schools to learn what is specific to them and what is general across all schools.
By evaluating initiatives in real-time, we adaptively learn and improve outcomes without waiting years for traditional evaluations.
“The whole school system is actually designed for quite a very small percentage of people. Schools should ask: What's actually going on with the student? Treat the student as an individual anyway.” - Student
Through extensive focus groups and consultations, we have mapped current knowledge and beliefs about what it means to finish school well. This led to a more comprehensive definition encompassing three core elements:
Developing strong academic performance, sustained engagement in learning, and essential life skills that prepare students for future success.
Fostering socio-emotional wellbeing, promoting physical and mental health, and building self-efficacy to navigate life’s challenges with confidence.
Cultivating a sense of belonging, strengthening cultural identity, and empowering students to have a voice in their communities.
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